Ocean heat fueled Fiji’s Cyclone Winston, meteorologists say


TC-Winston_OCHAClimate experts say ocean temperatures played a key role in strengthening Cyclone Winston, which slammed into Fiji on Saturday night with 200-mph winds, killing at least 28 people and flattening villages. “The warmer the sea-surface temperature, the stronger a tropical cyclone can get,” Bob Henson, a meteorologist and climate blogger at Weather Underground, told Al Jazeera in an email. “Sea-surface temperatures have been especially warm this year across much of the tropical Pacific, largely as a result of the current El Niño on top of the long-term warming,” Henson said. In addition to the past year’s record temperatures, the weather phenomenon known as El Niño — a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific — is also believed to have played a role. Fiji’s meteorological service last October issued its seasonal forecast warning of above-average cyclone activity for certain parts of the South Pacific because of El Niño, said Clare Nullis, media officer for the World Meteorological Organization. “The impacts of tropical cyclones, especially on small island states, are expected to increase because of more torrential rainfall and higher sea levels associated with climate change,” Nullis added. Because El Niño years translate to a lower sea level and rainfall in the western Pacific where Fiji lies, those effects of climate change may not have contributed to the storm’s strength, “but there does seem to be a link with El Niño,” Nullis said. Flood warnings remained in effect in some low-lying areas of Fiji as Winston moved farther away on Monday, according to the Fiji Meteorological Service. Officials said the death toll could rise once reports come in from Fiji’s remote, outer islands, which have been cut off by the storm. Cyclone Winston forced thousands of residents to flee to evacuation centers or hunker down in their own homes Saturday night. Read more.